The World Health Organisation has asked you to carry out an analysis of the determinants of COVID-19 cases across a given continent and a given country. On Moodle you will find details of the continent and the country that has been allocated to you. You are required to write a 1,800-word economic report in which you report on your findings. Your report is expected to be organised to include the following analysis.
For your allocated continent construct a panel dataset that, for each country, includes one observation per month, starting from March 2020, taken at the end of each month (i.e. the 30th of each month). Once you have set up your dataset you are asked to complete the two following tasks:
With the help of graphs and statistics provide a brief analysis of the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths across the continent. (approx. 200 words; 10 marks)
Carry out an econometrics investigation of the determinants of new COVID-19 cases across the continent. Select the variables you plan to use in your econometric model, justify your selection, produce some summary statistics for each variable and carry out your analysis.
(approx. 500 words, 20 marks)
A “reproduction rate” (R) greater than one is regarded as the threshold beyond which the pandemic becomes ‘explosive’ with sharp increases in cases. The WHO is interested in investigating what factors are affecting the likelihood of the “reproduction rate” being greater than one. By using the observations from the countries in your continent on 25th November 2020, explain how you would go about evaluating such a likelihood and carefully present the findings of your analysis. In presenting your findings briefly reflect on whether you believe that modelling R in this way is appropriate and whether you would consider alternative modelling strategies.
(approx. 400 words; 30 marks) 1
3. The WHO is also interested in supplying each individual member country with a detailed analysis of the pandemic in the country. You have been asked to provide an analysis for the country allocated to you over the period 1st April 2020 to 9th December 2020 and your analysis should contain:
A brief summary of the evolution of the pandemic over time in your allocated country. The analysis should be supported by appropriate graphs and summary statistics. (approx. 200 words; 10 marks)
A regression analysis aimed at estimating the determinants of new COVID-19 cases in the country over time. (approx. 500 words; 30 marks)