Reflection-Synthesis
Answer the following questions and prompts in a 3-4 page narrative that demonstrates a personal understanding of the material. Provide detailed examples from your own experiences that illustrate the concepts; if possible, discuss how this information might be relevant to your future career; whenever possible, define concepts with your own words.
Answer EACH of the six questions.
What is the age-old assumption about human beings that we are working AGAINST in this modern science of Judgment and Decision Making (JDM)? (Hint: economists assume this). Give an example in your own life where this assumption would SEEM to be true or useful, but is clearly wrong.
Identify and discuss TWO reasons why statistical models out-perform even experts in making accurate judgments. ALSO, we DID say, in our conclusion of the discussion on predictive models that there is STILL a role for human experts to play. Actually, we mentioned two. Identify just one of them.
Consider the task of judging whether one city is more populous than another – name a factor (JUST ONE) that is high in both ecological validity AND discrimination rate. Explain in your own words what the difference between those two concepts are.
Why don’t we use or rely on heuristics, even when we’ve been trained to do so? Provide any TWO reasons, biases, or concerns that humans have in relation to heuristic use. Provide an example from your own life where you blatantly ignore “pearls of wisdom”.
Define the law of large numbers. Based on this, in what size groups should we expect to see MORE variability? Provide a real-life example where this phenomenon is relevant.
Explain the “snapshot model” of a memory for an event? What are the important moments in an experience? Give an example from your own life.