Develop forecast for the Average Day Peak Month and Peak Hour operation in the years 2020 and 2040. In the Year 2020 the peak month is August and is 10.5 percent of annual operations.

Forecasting Section of Aviation Planning Project:

Part 1: Historical Aeronautical Activity and Based Aircraft

This section provides a discussion of ISM’s historical activity levels to begin building a context for the forecast of aviation demand at the Airport.

This section should describe the types and levels of aviation activity at the airport over the past 20 years. It should include tables and figures (think graphs) as appropriate.

The tabulated data should include the number of based aircraft, the number of annual airport operations as applicable. Years to be referenced: 2000-2019 (omitting Covid historical years- 20/21 for purpose of this project)

Once you have this data, combine it in a table with years 2010-2019 and depict it (in excel) in graphical form. You should show at a minimum a graph of the previous 20 years of total operations at ISM and a graph of the previous 20 years of based aircraft at ISM.

Year ISM Southern Region Florida
  Total Ops Total BA Total Ops Total BA Total Ops Total BA
2010 120,826 175 22,384,855 30,816 7,636,144 10,919
2011 124,668 166 22,384,428 29,240 7,660,402 10,820
2012 120,962 135 22,249,158 30,156 7,712,381 11,279
2013 110,324 141 22,293,492 31,115 7,881,366 11,538
2014 85,708 147 22,137,200 32,143 7,867,890 11,822
2015 83,057 134 22,479,343 30,779 8,123,940 11,345
2016 83,527 134 22,085,051 33,028 8,186,968 11,983
2017 86,664 161 22,351,789 31,861 8,258,266 11,560
2018 102,532 155 22,842,618 30,827 8,623,420 10,746
2019 135,290 206 23,463,977 31,811 8,960,741 11,684

*Data retrieved from the FAA TAF; BA: Based Aircraft

(Reference 04-Forecasts_Final under reference materials for example)

Part 2: Forecast – Annual Operations, ADPM, Peak Hour, and Based Aircraft

This section should include a forecast of total annual operations for ISM for the years 2020 through to 2040. An operations forecast should be completed using a trend analysis for the 20-year planning period. For total future operations at ISM, use the 5-year trend average for your forecast calculations.

In addition, develop forecast for the Average Day Peak Month and Peak Hour operation in the years 2020 and 2040. In the Year 2020 the peak month is August and is 10.5 percent of annual operations.

In addition, peak hour operations are 12.0% percent of operations during the average day of the peak month. Lastly, forecast the based aircraft for 2020 through 2040 using trend analysis. Use the 10-year trend average to forecast the based aircraft.

 

For your based aircraft fleet mix, assume the following:

60% Single Engine

10 % Multi Engine

20% Jet

10% Rotorcraft (Helicopters)